FCC Review of AT&T/T-Mobile Merger-Short Term Loss, Long Term Gains

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To be upfront and transparent, my view is the merger between AT&T and T-Mobile will eventually happen and all the details will get worked out between all the waring factions. Will the merger look the same as the way it did when announced. In the words of former WWE Superstar wrestler, "Stone Cold" Steve Austin--"HELL NO."

And it won't look that way because between the lawsuits from Sprint, the Department of Justice and now this review being mandated by the FCC, at each layer some chunks of the deal will be taken off the table between AT&T and T-Mobile, especially with regard to three key items:

1. Spectrum

2.Customers

3. Markets

What will occur is what happened back in the late 80s and 90s during era of cable consolidation and system swaps, making for more contiguous markets and system areas being formed, along with larger and larger cable companies. As the WSJ references already assets being offloaded by AT&T and T-Mobile are beginning to be discussed.

Then there is the question of who else will get into to the mix. The likely companies:

1. Google/Sprint

2. Microsoft and "Friends" including the cable guys in #3

3. A Cable Consortium (Cox, Cablevision, Comcast, TimeWarner, Charter, BrightHouse)

4. Vodafone (if the divest their interest in Verizon Wireless)

5. Telefonica

6. Orange

Related articles

• AT&T-Mo what happens next? (gigaom.com)
• FCC finds AT&T merger not in public interest, Genachowski issues order to hold trial (engadget.com)
• AT&T/T-Mobile merger looks dead; Will AT&T fight on? (cbsnews.com)
• FCC Will Not Bless AT&T/T-Mobile, Asks For Hearing On Merger (paidcontent.org)
• AT&T Faces Major FCC Hurdle in T-Mobile Acquisition (techland.time.com)