There is a story making its way around the about dual mode phones coming with services phone service that will combine cellular service when one is moving about with WiFi based VoIP service when one is at home or in a place where WiFi provides access to the Internet. I don't see dual mode handsets (i.e. those that can be both WiFi/VoIP and mobile) as the same as Fixed Mobile Convegence, unless they can make what is called a seamless handover between the circuit switch and VoIP worlds over IP Networks without dropping the call.
Unfortunately because the USA carriers are being tightlipped about what they plan to offer, very little is known here in the USA. I've attempted on half a dozen occasions to get T-Mobile to comment and their approach is silence or just referring me to a bunch of limited comments they have made. I truly believe that of all the companies in the USA that could grasp FMC the best it's T-Mobile as their @HOME product has been designed to do just that. Cingular has commented publicly on a TV segment I was featured in on the Oakland Fox affiliate signaling their intentions, but Sprint has been rather silent too.
This will be a very large market for someone, and my guess is the cable operators will find a way to do this first with some cooperation from the mobile operators. In my mind to get the fire started it means that you will likely see moves first made later this year, not from an MSO, but from Earthlink which has the biggest up upside potential to win in their MuniWiFi markets. Add in their relationship with Helio for the air game and Covad for the DSL ground game. Those relationships are already in place and can allow consumers, especially the early adopter, already DSL connected types to move in that direction quickly. That move by Earthlink and Helio will immediately be responded to by the MSO's in spades.
Time Warner Cable or Comcast will be first and will work their planned 4Play effort and Sprint as the mobile carrier relationship in this manner, but I'm already hearing some rumblings that it may possibly be via some other mobile operator, and that mobile operator could be T-Mobile. Remember that the 4Play deal originally was to be with AT&T but the SBC merger put the kibosh on that move. Speaking of MaBell, AT&T will also likely work an FMC play by combining Cingular and CallVantage service bundles around their DSL offering with consumer efforts led by Yahoo and their other DSL partners. This leaves T-Mobile and Verizon picking up the rear.
In my mind T-Mobile should have executed a roll up play of VoIP companies last year, and bought Vonage for their customer base, added in VoicePulse, Broadvoice and SunRocket, then bought up or did a revenue partnership with Primus and Packet8 which would have given them an immediate ground game customer base to play with. That type of effort would have given them users that were early adopters, geographically spread and likely already using both VoIP and Mobile phones. But, while they have been the farthest along on the concept of dual mode of any USA carrier, since they don't signal the market well enough, opportunities come and go before their very eyes.
Verizon Wireless has been a non factor, and their voice first, data only for business positioning is their achilles heal. Consumers may choose Verizon for their mobile voice services, but their locked out, walled garden data platform is not as nearly as friendly as Sprint's CDMA EvDO offerings, nor has Verizon been as aggressive at celling mobile data plans the way Cingular has, and as T-Mobile appears poised to be with their recent AWS auction wins.
So what makes sense here? The cable guys will lead the charge and are likely looking already for something beyond their Sprint relationship that was announced a little less than a year ago as the Four Play (but which I labeled ForePlay), as I hear that relationship is not as rosy or as endearing with the MSOs as some people would be led to believe. Given what was pointed out in August, about the Sprint WiMax effort not being perceived as exactly endearing move by Sprint the MSOs now are feel some added pressure to look in other directions. What is clear to me is that the cable guys want Fixed Mobile Convergence to happen soon, and need it to happen in order to continue to take callers away from the old Ma Bell, which is the same as the new Ma Bell like they are with VoIP. To break the MaBell monopoly, T-Mobile and Sprint should merge and then execute on roll ups and roll out with the cable MSOs financial and marketing involvement.
Now wouldn't that really be fixed mobile convergence.
Comments